europe, Scotland, society, UK Politics, World Politics

Sturgeon has total power over UK’s fate after Brexit

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When the major blow of Yes Scotland’s defeat set in during the aftermath of 2014’s Scottish independence referendum, many believed that the SNP would become a paralysed, lost cause from then on. Few would have thought that, under the sturdy leadership of the formidable Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish National Party would regain its position in dominating Scottish decision-making. However, Britain’s surprising verdict on EU membership has proven that Sturgeon’s contingent isn’t just controlling Scottish politics.

Rated by Forbes magazine as the most powerful woman in Britain after Queen Elizabeth II, not to mention the 50th most influential in the entire world, Brexit is changing Nicola Sturgeon and her party’s fortune. Perhaps next year’s rankings will have Sturgeon placed higher. I certainly wouldn’t argue with it. But whilst Brexit is stripping the good fortune of many British politicians, such as that of the precariously placed Jeremy Corbyn, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her party has only gained a position of greater power.

Given that victory for the Leave campaign in last week’s EU referendum was largely down to English votes, protest by many passionate internationalists and keen Scottish nationalists has dominated headlines. Scotland’s intentions evidenced by last week’s vote – of more than 70% support for Remain in many areas north of the border – has clearly shown that policy should take a different direction here.

After arguing consistently that a Brexit is not in the interests of the people of Scotland, the Scottish First Minister’s gargantuan new task is to rescue Scotland from the effects of Vote Leave. But the flipside is that this gives the SNP an exceptional political advantage. Nicola Sturgeon is in total control of Scotland’s future within the EU, and that influence does not span across issues with regard only to Scotland. In the likely event that the SNP leader is unable to forge a deal granting European Union membership to Scottish citizens alone, it will be Nicola Sturgeon who is in charge of deciding whether or not the United Kingdom really is united, refuelling her independence crusade.

The volume of influence that the Scottish First Minister now brandishes places Scotland in a very strong position at the fiery EU negotiating table. The events of this week have shown that the First Minister will remain silent at her peril. The Brexit result which hoped to bring increased sovereignty for the entirety of the UK has in turn weakened ties between Westminster and its sibling Scottish parliament at Holyrood.

Since 2007, the SNP has been the major force in Scottish politics, standing as the party of traditional social democracy, and, of course, independence. However, Sturgeon’s position as a key player in international affairs has become stronger thanks to a victory for Vote Leave. The triumphs of Johnson, Gove and Farage in terms of the European Union have not translated into triumphs for the UK’s union. For a Brexit has all the more accentuated the deep political crevasses which set apart the different components of the UK.

It seems that David Cameron has made a fatal error by underestimating the challenges of keeping Britain in the European Union, not to mention the challenges of keeping Britain on side with his party’s government. A harsh split, further nursed by the Prime Minister’s Friday morning resignation, threatens the future of Conservative party politics. The Labour party is no safe haven either. Ravaged by a leader deemed unable to take it to its peak in a possibly imminent General Election, Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership looks tenuous.

71669140_jpg_galleryNicola Sturgeon is no fool. Her party has seen numerous victories of late, and her ability as a skillful tactician is more obvious than ever before. The aforementioned failings highlighted by the shock of Brexit have only widened Sturgeon’s stage as an influential policymaker. In recent days, SNP support has surged, an effect similar to that achieved by the Party during the aftermath of the 2014 referendum. Inner party turmoil certainly doesn’t riddle the SNP. Sturgeon’s socially democratic force is one of the only ones avoiding a rift with its clear-cut policy, and this is one of its grandest assets.

The SNP is a decisive and strategic band, a tidal wave which now seems to dwarf the fragmented Labour and Conservative parties at Westminster. Sturgeon isn’t right-wing populism, Sturgeon isn’t scaremongering, and Sturgeon isn’t austerity. Faisal Islam of ITV remarked this morning that it is Nicola Sturgeon who has “the most thought out plan” for Brexit. In a likely snap general election, the First Minister is sure to pick up some of the votes of those who have become dismayed by the Tories’ and Labour’s endless internal strife. Her shrewdness and sharp-witted nature are her doubtless fortes which have been brought to light all thanks to Brexit. As long this adeptness does not fail, the SNP will call the shots in Scottish politics, and indeed in European relations, for many months and years to come.

With the failings of the UK Parliament parties in producing constructive political change, as well as a vote for Brexit which ignores Scottish votes, Sturgeon’s movement for independence may, too, build in strength and support. A reassessment of relations between the UK and EU has brought the question of national sovereignty back into the political arena. Aims of the Smith Commission evidently haven’t gone far enough, and in ways akin to the post-Brexit case, Scotland’s opinions are becoming drowned out. The contrast in opinions over the EU between England and Scotland serves to demonstrate exactly why Scotland is growing tired of the talking shop that is Westminster. Sturgeon has the ultimate upper hand over the future of the United Kingdom, and Sturgeon’s movements may well provoke a breakup.

More interestingly, the future of Scottish Labour looks grim. The European Union question may well change opinions of the Holyrood party whose support has plummeted over recent years. Yesterday it was widely reported that the Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, will consider support for independence. But this is surely a political death of Sturgeon’s arguably inadvertent making. Dugdale’s extreme desperation for votes in tandem with growing support for the nationalist cause could mean that even the skeleton of Labour’s Scottish branch is no longer safe from a painful fracture. If her strategy is to support independence, Dugdale risks splitting her party between nationalists and unionists, only playing into Sturgeon’s hands.

The European Union debate has questioned not only UK sovereignty, but also the sovereignty of the separate nation states which make up the UK. Recent events have shown clearly that the politics of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are vastly different.

With Sturgeon ceasing the opportunity for using this as a vehicle for constitutional change within Scotland, it is easy to see that the Scottish First Minister’s actions over coming months will largely determine also the United Kingdom’s fate. Along with the most prominent of British and EU officials, it is the Nicola Sturgeon who will have one of the most influential seats at the Brexit negotiation table. Whilst both major political parties within Westminster are fast collapsing, diseased by pathogens of indecisiveness and disarray, it is Nicola Sturgeon’s party which remains dead set on its policy. The First Minister of Scotland only has Westminster to thank for her unprecedented leverage. After the breakthrough of devolution in 1999, along with an intense referendum discussion two years ago, few could have foreseen Scotland continuing to pose such a huge threat to the longevity of the UK.

Read more from Robert Guthrie

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UK Politics

Corbyn’s fragmented party is felling a future of success

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In the midst of fierce debate within the Labour Party, its leader Jeremy Corbyn has made clear that a shadow cabinet reshuffle is imminent. Longstanding Labour stalwarts are set to become stripped of their coveted titles, and damaging presidential politics will become the norm.

Of course, this is a new – and once again ‘new’ – age for Labour. A November poll showed that approximately 66% of those able to vote in the September leadership election believed Jeremy Corbyn is leading “well.” 86% believed Corbyn is doing a good job, and nearly half of all who voted for Andy Burnham to become leader agreed. This advent of contentment must be celebrated, highlighting the still grassroots element of the Party. In addition, policies such as nuclear disarmament and foreign policy have been moved closer to the top of the Party agenda. Labour’s core values as social-democrats have become reinstated, a mindset which is reflective of Party members’ views.

But progression and success can only come in positively criticising the Tory government, and momentarily, Labour MPs are instead criticising themselves. The comments of Peter Mandelson and Tony Blair are indeed understandable, but have highlighted the damaging divide between existing and new Blairites and Corbyn supporters. A disunited party is unable to scrutinise its opposition and make effective changes to British lives, and this is having a stark effect on the strength of Labour.

The emerging political crevasse is demobilising Labour and impinging on possibilities of a successful future, including 2020 election gains. An imminent cabinet reshuffle will surely fail to fill the cavity in Labour’s enamel which once sparkled. Corbyn’s principle of ‘new politics’ has been abandoned. Willfully enlarging the already sweeping divide amongst Labour MPs largely goes against the principles of dialogue and compromise upon which his politics is said to be based. How can Corbyn justify punishment for voting freely over Syria, in a supposedly free vote?  An effective Labour party must endorse discussion, and take into account the ideas of all members.

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By staging a Cabinet reshuffle after just one huge party defeat, Corbyn is mindlessly creating a deficit of able frontbench politicians. Demoting the likes of Hilary Benn and Maria Eagle is a mistake. This is not only demoting key political brains, but also supporters of some true left-wing policy for which Corbyn’s party should be striving. Disagreement is needed for effective policy synthesis, and a move to more presidential and autocratic politics harks back to earlier, contentious Labour periods. Tony Blair’s leadership methods largely ignored the views of many backbench Labour politicians. The party simply cannot move back to those days of internal dictatorship and division.

Whilst I am an advocate of the socially democratic policies which Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters uphold, the Labour Party remains detrimentally polarised. This flurry of disorganisation will only debilitate the Party in scrutinising David Cameron, and will wreck chances of future election success. The Labour Party must once again decide on what it stands for – crushing austerity, standing up for hard work and values of social justice, surely. It is time Labour MPs realised that only they can narrow the gap in opinion, and uphold the friendly and co-operative values the Party aims to work by. Labour must be united in policy, and must work together to create resolutions which please its activists and politicians.

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